Yahoo Inc.'s secret weapon in its effort to
squeeze a higher offer out of Microsoft Corp. resides overseas in
Asia's surging Internet market.
Yahoo has investments worth $13.8 billion in Alibaba.com Corp.,
parent of China's largest online trading site, and Yahoo Japan Corp.
That accounts for almost one-third of the $31 a share Microsoft is
offering. In a year, the value of those stakes may balloon 15 percent
to $15.9 billion, according to analysts' average share-price estimates
for the Asian companies.
Unlike the U.S. search market, where Microsoft and Yahoo have been
beaten down by Google Inc. in text advertisements, Asia is geared more
toward graphical banner ads, where Google has less of a presence. In
China, the world's second-largest Web market, online trading between
companies may almost quadruple to the equivalent of $1.05 trillion by
2010. Yahoo investors may benefit as Microsoft pays more to gain access
to this growth.
"Alibaba is a good franchise in the fastest-growing Internet
market," said Kevin Landis at Firsthand Capital Management in San Jose,
Calif., which oversees $600 million and added to its Yahoo holdings
last year. "Stubbornly, these Yahoo shares didn't respond to that. I
think if you gave it time, they would."
In rejecting Microsoft this week, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang cited
investments in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan as reasons the offer
"substantially undervalues" Yahoo. Minority investments produced profit
of $150.7 million last year, 23 percent of net income and 34 percent
more than in 2006.
Legg Mason Inc. fund manager Bill Miller agrees. Miller, 58, said
this week that his Baltimore-based firm, Yahoo's second-biggest
investor with 6.3 percent of the shares, values them at $40 or more
each. Miller, who declined to comment for this story, didn't say how he
came up with his calculations.
No competing bid has emerged. Yahoo is in talks to combine Internet
operations with those of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., according to a
person with knowledge of the talks.
Yahoo spokeswoman Tracy Schmaler and News Corp. spokeswoman Julie
Henderson declined to comment. Microsoft spokesman Bill Cox didn't
return calls.
In 2005, Yahoo swapped $1 billion and its China units for 39 percent
of privately held Alibaba.com Corp. in Hangzhou. The initial public
offering last year of its Alibaba.com Ltd. unit raised $1.68 billion,
the biggest IPO for an Internet company since Google in 2004. Yahoo, in
Sunnyvale, Calif., also owns 1 percent of the public company's shares.
Alibaba.com Corp. also owns Web-auction site Taobao and online
payment unit Alipay. Sales from Taobao's site more than doubled last
year as rising incomes in China lifted the number of Internet users by
53 percent.
The amount of goods and services traded on the Web by Chinese
companies may reach $1.05 trillion in 2010, according to Ping An
Securities Co.
Stifel Nicolaus analyst George Askew in Baltimore valued Yahoo's
holdings in Alibaba.com Corp. at $4.93 billion as of a week ago.
With 33 percent control of Yahoo Japan and a 10 percent stake in
GMarket Inc. of South Korea, Yahoo's Asian investments equal $13.6
billion, or $9.74 a share, Askew said. The prices have increased this
week.
"Yahoo's stronger position in Asia is one of the rationales for
Microsoft's takeover bid," said Ivan Li, an analyst at Kim Eng
Securities (HK) Ltd. in Hong Kong.
Yahoo has underperformed Alibaba and Yahoo Japan, in part because of
disappointing sales. Through Friday, Alibaba.com Ltd. had jumped 48
percent since its Nov. 5 IPO. Yahoo Japan dropped 2.7 percent and Yahoo
fell 4.4 percent.
Microsoft is pursuing Yahoo to bolster competition with Google in an
online ad market that may double to $80 billion by 2011. Yahoo Japan,
the country's most popular Web site, attracted 88 percent of local
users in December, compared with 56 percent for Google, according to
NetRatings Japan Inc. It also offers access to a mobile-phone market
where more than half of subscribers surf the Web.
The Asian properties would be a boon for Microsoft, whose Internet
business there lags behind competitors, said Claus Mortensen, a Hong
Kong-based analyst at researcher IDC. Microsoft handled 1.2 percent of
search queries in Asia in December, compared with Google's 38.2 percent
and 24.9 percent for Yahoo, ComScore said.
Display ads are 52 percent of the online market in Asia, according
to IDC, compared with 20 percent for search. In the U.S., search
accounts for 40 percent, versus 31 percent for display and video, said
New York-based EMarketer Inc. Almost all of Google's $16.6 billion in
sales last year came from search.
Microsoft faces challenges retaining Alibaba and Yahoo Japan clients
that wary of the world's biggest software maker, said JupiterResearch
analyst Neil Strother.
"On paper it gives Microsoft a bit of a leg up," Strother said. "Can
they hold on to customers or do the customers decide that Yahoo Japan
or Alibaba have just become the same as Microsoft?"